The index rebounded from 2635 to the vicinity of 3000 points, and the market's fluctuation began to intensify, with the positions starting to loosen.
At this time, I will give everyone a clear point of view.
Do not lose your positions, maintain a high level of investment.
Of course, to put it more aggressively, it is better to sell oneself than to sell your positions.
Do you still remember that sentence? Cherish your positions every time it breaks through 3000 points.
At that time, perhaps no one believed it, but now it has become something that must be believed.
The magic of the stock market lies in the fact that during a big drop, it can make people panic.
It can make you feel that the positions at 2635 points are very worthless, as if they are everywhere, and as long as you want to buy, there will be.
But it can also change your three views in just a few weeks, making you feel that the positions below 3000 points should be cherished, as if it is not so easy to break through 3000 again.
There are some people who are now waiting for the break of 3000 to get on the bus, but the opportunity to get on the bus seems to be not much.Of course, there are also some people who, at the 3000 point position, believe that it is time to reduce their positions.
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In fact, there is no absolute right or wrong regarding whether to increase or decrease positions, or whether to cherish the chips. It depends on the current situation and environment.
Just like last year, when the market just broke through 3000, selling the chips was the correct choice.
And at this stage, just after rising back to 3000 points, holding onto the chips has become crucial.
Many people don't understand why the chips have become valuable again at the same 3000 points.
Here are a few reasons for a simple analysis.
1. The trend has changed, and the direction has changed.
When the market broke through 3000, it was still in a downward trend.
If the two times in 2022 that the market broke through 3000 were sharp declines, then the end of 2023 breaking through 3000 was a slow decline.
A slow decline corresponds to a sharp rise, but the cycle of a slow decline is very long.During the process of a slow decline, it will make everyone feel that there are chips everywhere below 3000, so there is no rush to enter the market.
In fact, the first time it broke through 3000 and fell to 2923, it was a sharp drop, so it quickly recovered the 3000 point mark.
But the second time it broke through 3000 and fell to 2635, it was a slow decline, and indeed, chips can be seen anytime, anywhere.
However, the sharp rise after the slow decline, quickly recovering the lost ground, caught many people off guard.
The sudden change in the trend made the chips suddenly precious.
We all know that during the rise, every re-entry is the best time to enter the market.
2. The market cycle is still in its early stage.
There is another reason why the chips at this place should be cherished, that is, the market has just begun.
In the early stage of the market, the price must be relatively low, and the chips are very precious.
Many people say that it has already reached 3000 points, why is the price relatively low, it should not be cheap anymore.But if you think in reverse and understand one thing, the current 3000 points are not the same as the previous 3000 points.
Here, the 3000 points are driven by the rise in banks, coal, oil, and state-owned enterprises.
That is, the current 3000 points, many sectors are still at the position of 2850-2900, and have not recovered to 3000 points.
For those industries that have overshot, it may be true that the chips should be loosened.
But for those low-positioned markets, the chips are still very precious, and capital will not release the low-positioned chips.
If there is a cycle in the market, the current cycle may just be the beginning of the market, and it is still very early to end.
Only 13 trading days have risen in February, and a whole round of the market, at least 40-50 trading days, there is still a long cycle.
This is also the main reason why capital sees the decline and grabs the chips, because it has not yet reached the delivery cycle.
Regardless of whether it can make money now, from the perspective of safety, the insurance factor is relatively high.
3, the empty funds are eager to get on the bus.The third reason, in fact, is due to the rapid return to the 3000-point mark, leaving the capital that missed out with no time to board the train.
It takes time for large capital to get on board, especially for a portion of the funds that have turned from short to long positions.
They originally judged that the market would not rise so quickly, but after a round of short-covering, they realized the seriousness of the issue.
Many short sellers can only continue to add positions during the rise, at least to build up a basic position.
Therefore, between 2900 and 3000 points, there was not much hesitation, and there was no significant increase in trading volume.
The lack of trading volume is not because the capital is not active, but because as soon as a little was bought, the price went up, and there were simply not that many shares available.
The shares of the original short sellers were borrowed, and now that the re-lending is not allowed, the short sellers have no shares left.
The difficulty for the long positions to buy shares has also increased sharply.
The large capital that missed out wants to increase its positions, but it is not easy, which forces them to buy whenever there is an adjustment and shares are released.
You might think that the 1.36 trillion is the large capital running away, but in fact, it is the short sellers who have finally waited for the adjustment and are buying with abandon.So, at the current point in time, it is clear whether chips are more important or capital is more important.
How much space is left in the market is a point of concern for many people.
Some people believe that above 3100, the pressure is heavy, and the space should be very small.
The first point to understand is whether the current 3100 is the same as the past 3100.
If it is the same, then above 3100, the pressure is indeed heavy.
But if 3100, and the 3100 at that time are not the same thing, and even 3200, 3300 are not the same thing, then the pressure position is not a simple calculation of the value.
In addition, there is one more important point.
The space of the overall market index is not large, which does not mean that the space of the sub-tracks is not large.
There are many sub-tracks with good elasticity, such as big technology.There are many subdivisions, still at a low position, such as new energy.
Different subdivisions correspond to different market spaces, and the positions they are in are completely different.
Some have already set new highs and are still continuing to rise.
Some have already been halved, with a lot of room for repair.
So, the chips at the current 3000 points, at the beginning of this rising market, are really very precious.
Some people will ask, how to judge that the market has just started, and when is it about to end.
The market itself, showing high position stagnation, is the most common phenomenon in the middle and later stages.
When you find that only the hot spots are still rotating in the market, and the individual stocks that large funds are speculating have already shown signs of not being able to rise, then the risk faced may be very high.
When you find that the hot spots in the market are rotating faster and faster, and there seems to be a new plate that wants to rise every day, the market has also reached the middle and later stages.
Generally speaking, a round of the market rises, at least 2-3 months of the cycle, this is the shortest repair cycle.Otherwise, the capital is not sufficient in terms of the time cycle from entry to exit, and cannot complete the market trend.
Therefore, the current is a period where one can be boldest, at least until March, and relatively safe until early April.
The biggest issue is whether the precious chips you hold in your hand are indeed of high quality.
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