Write a piece that might stir up a bit of controversy.
Because I believe that most retail investors still haven't grasped the truth of this market.
The truth is always harsh and difficult for most people to understand, which is why the truth is always in the hands of the few.
Retail investors like to do one thing, which is to look for reasons.
Today it rose, why did it rise, where is the good news.
Today it fell, why did it fall, where is the bad news, who is the one smashing the market.
Recently, the term heard more is that the bears are too hateful, the market is hopeless and so on.
It can be fully understood that when everyone is losing money, they will look for an emotional venting window, which is normal.
But emotional venting will not bring their own growth, nor is it the root cause of the problem.
First of all, we must understand again that we are entering a capital market.What is the capital market?
The capital market is a market that does not show mercy, a market that is extremely profit-driven, and a market of fierce competition.
When you enter this place, you should understand that there is deceit and trickery here.
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But now, if you are praying for divine favor and policy intervention, you are fundamentally wrong, wrong from the start.
The reason why retail investors are called retail investors is because they need to fight independently.
You must be like a special forces soldier to survive in the market.
When you start looking forward to reinforcements, you should think about whether you are wrong.
Is it a strategic mistake, having penetrated deep into enemy territory and being isolated without support?
Or is it a choice mistake, launching an attack at the wrong time?
Is it that uncontrollable circumstances have changed, or is it that you have chosen the wrong terrain and failed to take advantage of the local conditions?Individual investors cannot determine any market environment or changes; what they can determine is their own behavior.
This is correct, but it is also the key point of the individual investor's weakness.
Individual investors are wrong because the essence of human nature is similar, or the same.
This directly leads to the behavior of individual investors being close, and can be analyzed by big data.
That is to say, the main capital can completely understand every move of the individual investors, everything is in their grasp.
Even the stock disaster we see is completely the same.
For example, the stock disaster in 2008, all the way down to 1664, many people were desperate.
As a result, in 2009, it immediately rose to 3478, and the index doubled again.
You should know that the index has more than doubled, which can at least be considered a small bull market.
So why didn't most people make money, it's because in a round of cycles, they were cut by capital again and again.There are many investors who will criticize the market system of our A-shares as being very imperfect, with various loopholes.
Then they will praise the global markets, claiming that their systems are complete and protect small and medium investors.
In the U.S. market, the proportion of retail investors is only 6%, while this figure was 70-80% a few decades ago, and looking back further, it was over 90%.
We often mention a term called "de-retailization."
It refers to the market eliminating batches of retail investors after each bull and bear cycle.
Eventually, retail investors are not out of the investment game, but they basically all entrust professional investment institutions to make investments.
If our market wants to see an ultimate bull market, breaking through the 6124 level, it must complete the de-retailization.
But many people think of de-retailization too simply.
This process must be brutal and very long, because that's human nature.When capital can make a quick profit, they won't think about long-term investment or value investment.
This is like someone offering you a salary five times higher to lure you away, and most people would be tempted.
But if capital can only make slow money, or when the opponents are all professional investment institutions like them, the game will naturally be different.
Capital grouping together to drive up the stock market is not impossible, but it must be based on the premise that retail investors are not the mainstream of the market.
In the consciousness of retail investors, there is such an assumption that when a large number of retail investors lose confidence, the market is doomed.
But the reality may be different from what we think.
When the market continuously breaks the issue price and there are very few investors applying for purchase, has the IPO stopped?
In fact, it has not.
The new stock breaking the issue price does not actually affect the company's fundraising. The shares that are given up on subscription are eventually distributed after offline allocation.
Some may say that it is the underwriters who bought them themselves, talking about collusion of interests and so on.In the end, looking at the results, regardless of whether retail investors participate or not, the issues with the IPO have been resolved.
This also explains why, even though the market is already so difficult, the process of IPO has not been stopped, at most it has just been slowed down.
Looking from another perspective, has there been no study on the systems of overseas markets?
Definitely there has been, and not just once or twice.
So why hasn't there been a direct copy, or why haven't we seen it by now?
The reason is simple: it is believed that the current market has not reached this stage, and there is no need to protect retail investors.
Once the system is implemented, if it does not attract large capital to take over, it may instead lead to a significant increase in confidence among retail investors, causing them to enter the market to take over.
At that time, it will be a market full of retail investors again, and no matter how good the system is, it cannot protect the situation of being cut by capital.
The outcome of the market is destined to be the exit of retail investors and the entry of professional investment institutions, that's the only way.
It's like in this market, it is destined that 70% of retail investors will lose money, 20% will break even, and only 10% will make a profit.The future market landscape implies that only a small part of retail investors will ultimately remain.
Most retail investors are doomed to leave the market with a sense of despair.
It is quite normal to curse along the way, and then warn the people around them not to enter the stock market, as they will be "harvested like leeks".
Each time the ending is similar, this is completely unavoidable, it is the law of the market.
Finally, consider another question, since the future pattern is destined, why is it so tragic at the moment.
In fact, the answer is also very simple, a long cycle of baptism is needed to take back all the chips into the hands of capital.
The characteristic of capital is to hype wildly during the favorable cycle, selling the chips at high prices.
When it comes to the unfavorable cycle, it forcibly suppresses the market to an absolute low point, and then takes back the blood-stained chips.
And those investment tools that can cause the funds to blow up are the culprits.
Let the whole market ferment again with emotions, and then harvest another crop of leeks, and it is completely successful.Whether it's official media, social media, or self-media, any public information that you can see has little value.
They are just information that can subjectively affect your judgment.
The more public the information, the easier it is for investors to make mistakes in judgment, and the more easily the capital behind it can manipulate retail investors.
So, many times the mistake lies in trusting the capital itself, and believing in the market.
Being brave enough to admit mistakes means there is still the ability to move forward.
But if one is stubborn and indulges in emotional venting, they will eventually be enslaved and become the "chopsticks" under the capital harvester.
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