Write some technical insights; the logic has been mostly organized, but I'm not sure if most people have understood it.
Let me vent a bit: the platform gives little traffic to high-quality content.
It specifically shows retail investors some utterly uninformative clickbait, which has led to the phenomenon of bad money driving out good.
This is the main reason for the retail investors' emotional surge and chasing high prices to take over the positions.
Only through rationality, coupled with some systematic judgment methods, can one make some predictions in advance, increase the direction of the major trend, and help oneself trade better.
Let's first discuss this round of market conditions.
Firstly, the market expectation is that it started from 2635, and initially, we look at a 500-600 point range, which is the 3135-3235 interval.
Many people would say that around 3100, it's a densely trapped area, and the resistance is actually very large, so why would the index look above 3200?
Let me explain why.
Let's first look at past cases, from 3731, it fell to 2863, and rebounded to 3424.From an exponential perspective, the range of 3300-3400 also represents a large number of trapped positions, so why did the market move to 3424?
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On one hand, it's to lure in more buyers, and on the other hand, it's because the industries driving the index increase are different.
That is to say, the 3424 at that time was not the same as the previous 3300-3400.
In other words, this round of market movement to above 3200, and even 3300, 3400, is not the same as the 3300-3400 at that time.
The rise of the index cannot be fully analyzed by technical means, because there are too many tools to pull up the index, and there will be technical errors.
To be more extreme, the high point of this round of market index may break through the two high points of 3418 and 3424.
Because only by giving people the impression that the bull market has come can a large amount of capital be introduced into the pocket.
Of course, here you can use technical indicators to measure some indexes that are not easy to be distorted, such as the ChiNext Index.
The low point of the ChiNext Index is 1482, and the monthly trend line of the downtrend is around 2200 points, with the overall space between 40-50%, which is already a large-scale rebound market.
If you look at it from the monthly level, this rebound is more like the rebound at the beginning of 2018, to make a round of repair.The level at that time was relatively small, while the level in this round is much larger.
Since the ChiNext board fell from last February to this February, the time period spans 12 months.
Therefore, the rebound and repair cycle should at least last for more than 3 months, and the space will also be relatively larger.
Moreover, regardless of whether this place is a rebound or a reversal, the ChiNext board will definitely come down when it reaches this interval (2150-2200).
Most of the space forecasts for broad-based funds are in line with the logic of long-term cycles, even if a reversal is to occur, it will go through a process of oscillation, washing and confirmation.
If you simply look at the moving averages, there is no sign at all that the direction of the core 20-month moving average is about to turn back.
Now, talking about the reversal of the market, the starting point of a big bull market, is sheer nonsense.
However, after a long-term decline, the repair of the overall market will definitely occur, and a 2-3 month market cycle is certain.
Let's take a closer look at the time period to see exactly which stage the market is in.The market trend of large cycles, from bull to bear, and from bear to bull, goes through several major stages.
Breakdown and sharp decline, establishing a bear market.
The sharp decline in June 2015 and January 2022 are examples of such breakdown declines.
Usually, a breakdown decline is not something that can be completed in a month; there will be more than three bearish lines at the monthly line level, indicating a large-scale capital exodus.
At this time, the medium and long-term moving averages are still rising, but the short-term moving averages have already crossed below.
Strong rebound, but not crossing the moving averages.
The first round of decline is often relatively fast, and the first round of rebound is also quite fierce.
The rebound at the end of 2015 and in the middle of 2022 both lasted about three months, with rebound amplitudes of 30-40%.
This stage is actually a mid-mountain market, luring a group of people to stand guard.
Such a rebound is difficult to repair the moving averages, and technically speaking, it is called a counter-pullback.The first round of downtrend and recovery.
After the first round of rebound ends, there will inevitably be a period of downtrend.
The reason for such a period is quite simple.
Because the funds have completely exited during the last strong rebound.
So, the decline at this time will not be particularly fierce, but a small wave after another goes down.
The downtrend period varies in length, with the Shanghai Composite Index having 7-8 months, the ChiNext 12 months, and the Science and Technology Innovation Board 9 months.
In the later stage of the downtrend, there will also be a pit, just like in January of this year, digging a deep pit, to prepare for the recovery market.
After a long-term decline, the market will definitely usher in a decent recovery market, which is the current stage.
The part of the recovery is actually the part of the market that is oversold, as well as the market sentiment.
Because the market has been declining for a long time, the sentiment is very pessimistic, and the funds are on the sidelines, and the selling pressure will become smaller and smaller.When the bear market reaches its extreme, even with a significant volume decline, a rebound is imminent.
However, the rebound at this position is actually a correction to the moving averages, with the largest correction being the downward trend to the 20-month moving average.
The second round of digging a pit and the end of the bear market.
Before the end of the bear market, there will be an ultimate pit, just like in January 2024.
But I have never seen a bear market pit that climbs out in just one month.
The longer the time spent at the bottom of the pit, the more solid the pit is, and the greater the opportunity.
Because capital needs the bottom chips, it won't climb up immediately, how can it hype without getting the goods.
At the end of the bear market, there is a pit that lasts for at least half a year, and it is mixed with many bad news.
Bad news is good news, bad news at the bottom is for chips, all of which ultimately point to the early stage of the bull market.
So, to see if there is a bull market, you actually have to see if the pit is deep enough and the time cycle is long enough.The bottom cycle has a distinctive feature, which is the long-term moving averages, such as the 20-year line and the 30-year line retracement.
In addition, it is important to consider whether the medium-term moving averages are at relatively low positions, such as the position of the 20-month line, and so on.
A major bull-bear cycle in the A-share market requires at least 4-5 years of accumulation and is not something that can be achieved overnight.
Each time, it will make retail investors doubt life, and then obediently hand over their chips at the bottom.
The essence of the moving average system is an average price system.
And the price of a stock is the fluctuation around the average price.
That is to say, the moving average itself has "gravity."
When the stock price deviates significantly from the moving average, there is room for correction.
If it rises too much, it needs to fall, and if it falls too much, it needs to rise, which has become an iron law.The main theme of this market trend is repair; thus, the repair depends on the position of the medium-term moving average to determine the extent of the repair space.
The essence of technology is the profit space under the operation of capital, and how much there is in the end.
Everyone's ultimate goal is actually to make money, and the space for making money determines the amount of capital invested.
As for the final direction and position of the market trend, it can only be said that we will have to wait and see around April.
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