On February 28th, the indices of the two markets suddenly saw a significant increase in volume, reaching 1.36 trillion, which is also a record high in recent years.
Near the 3,000 point mark, the indices suddenly increased in volume, and combined with the trend in the two days following the surge, there was a rapid reversal and intraday fluctuations.
Many people are confused about what the market is trying to do, or what it is preparing to do.
When the index increases in volume, it could mean that funds are fleeing, or that funds are entering, or that there is a shift in the stocks being held, or perhaps it is a process of washing out the market.
Firstly, there is one point that can be very clear.
The appearance of increased volume in the market means that the liquidity of funds has greatly increased.
Liquidity represents the activity level of funds.
In a sense, it represents a significant turnover of funds.
One interpretation is that there is a large-scale flight of funds.
If a sharp decline occurs during the period of increased volume, then this is indeed the case.But if there is a significant increase in trading volume without a corresponding sharp drop in prices, or if the sharp drop only lasts for a period, then it's a different story.
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It's like the increased trading volume on the daily line of 2.28, where the decline was mainly concentrated in the afternoon, especially in the last half hour of the trading session.
However, the main period of increased trading volume was in the morning, which is quite strange.
Increased trading volume in the morning and a sharp drop in the afternoon may seem like capital is being withdrawn, but in fact, it's the beginning of capital moving covertly.
Everyone must be very curious about who sold and who bought the additional 300 billion yuan in market transaction volume, which is definitely not related to retail investors due to the scale of the capital.
In this case, you need to look at the situation of the sector differentiation on that day.
Because the sector that is sold must have a lot of selling pressure, and the sector that is bought must have an action of lifting.
Many details actually cannot be hidden.
Moreover, looking at the trend on 2.29, it is a reduction in volume, which indicates that the capital has already collected the chips in place on 2.28.When is it time to wash the plate, switch positions, and when is it a capital flight?
In fact, the most crucial thing is to look at the position.
The significance of a decline at different positions is definitely different.
Why is the sudden increase in volume at 3000 points for adjusting positions, not for selling out? There are several reasons for this.
1. The rebound of micro-plate stocks is nearing its end.
The reason for the increase in volume is actually to cover the retreat of micro-plate stocks.
Micro-plate stocks may not continue to plummet, but the upward space for micro-plate stocks is very small.
The reason for the market's increase in volume is to sell the chips of micro-plate stocks during the adjustment of positions.
In this direction, there is no big capital that will take over the position.
Professional institutions will not take over junk stocks, and the market makers will not build positions at high positions for junk stocks. The remaining regulars, that is, quantitative, are also reducing leverage and clearing junk stocks.So, in the micro-plate stocks, the junk stocks with hidden performance bombs naturally became the culprits of the sharp drop.
A large part of the capital migration is from this direction, entering other directions.
Generally, any direction that has experienced a short-term surge will have an adjustment, even if it is not a sharp drop, it also needs to be horizontal and shake to digest the chips.
2. Technology stocks have risen too much and have an adjustment demand.
The reason for the increase in volume is also due to the divergence of technology stocks.
The divergence of technology stocks is mainly because the rise of technology stocks is too large, and the short-term deviation needs to be repaired.
Some technology stocks have doubled in February, and the increase of the vast majority of leaders is also more than 50%.
After the festival, there are only two weeks, and such a large increase is definitely in need of repair, so there is a divergence of funds.
There are actually many ways to repair, and falling is just one of them.
A strong repair is a slow rise, waiting for the moving average to catch up.The repair of the weak is the decline, and there is another kind, which is to draw a box to make shock washing.
A large increase does not mean that there will be no increase in the future, but there may be a need to take a break on the way up, or there may be a little bumpy.
After all, individual stocks can continue to hit the board, and the entire plate must be stop and go.
3, high dividend strategy, need to have capital adjustment.
Where did the capital withdraw from? In addition to micro-plate stocks, in addition to technology stocks, there is also a part from high dividends.
Banks, coal, oil, insurance, these directions actually have a huge adjustment demand.
The high dividend strategy is a defensive strategy, which is very effective when the market is falling and adjusting.
But the market is now strong, and capital will naturally withdraw from the high dividend strategy, because there is no need to avoid risks.
This part of the capital comes out, there must be some capital to take over, which forms a very large trading volume.
Of course, these directions are not completely bad, but in the speculation cycle, it seems a bit out of place.Perhaps when these directions rise again, it will be the end of the market trend.
4. Low-position large sectors, which are the focus of capital attention.
There are some large sectors that are actually still at a low position.
The first to start is the semiconductor branch market.
After that, there are lithium battery energy storage, wind power photovoltaics, etc., the entire new energy is also a large sector at a low position.
There are many low-position large sectors, and when capital needs to adjust positions, the movement will naturally be larger.
There are also sectors like medicine, which has many subdivisions, such as medicine, medical equipment, hospitals, traditional Chinese medicine, innovative drugs, and large medicine, which also have a strong ability to attract capital.
The more fully the large sectors rotate, the further the market will go, and the volume will naturally be greater.
It is very normal for this kind of high-low switch to appear on the way up in the market, and the rotation relay will be the norm.Volume is a sign of divergence, but it is also the beginning of unity.
When there is a divergence in capital, a game of strategy emerges; those who want to buy choose to purchase, while those who want to sell are in the process of selling.
However, after the buying and selling transactions are completed, unity is restored.
Because those who should have bought have already done so, and those who should have sold have already done so, at this point, the chips and capital will once again reach a dynamic balance.
When the buying side's capital is stronger, the market naturally begins to rise.
But we must also understand that divergence means that at a certain node, the market has a reason to fall again.
That is to say, there is indeed a portion of capital that has exited near the 3000 point mark.
Not all capital is optimistic about the market reaching 3100, 3200, 3300, or even higher.
The divergence of capital stems from concerns about the uncertainty of the market trend, and as the market rises, the frequency of divergence will become increasingly high.
When the market repeatedly shows divergence, and the momentum of buying is less than the chips being sold, it naturally begins to fall.So, an increase in trading volume is not entirely a good thing. An increase in volume at the top, especially with a bearish candlestick, is indeed very dangerous.
The relationship between volume and price should be considered together, as the reference value of volume alone is not particularly significant.
Finally, after capital has been covertly transferred, there will inevitably be new hot spots and main lines emerging. In addition to the major theme of technology, there can be new expectations in March.
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