Review: Is it really a disaster that was rescued?

Review: Is it really a disaster that was rescued?

The market has improved, so there is time to review this round of decline.

I want to emphasize to everyone that reviewing the game is very important.

Recently, I have seen some opinions that attribute this round of stock market crash to the failure of the rescue efforts.

Some people say that deliberately pulling up the "Zhongzi" stocks led to a thousand stocks to fall to the daily limit.

Others say that it is the forced purchase of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETF that brought the capital to turn.

Indeed, this is a premeditated decline, but it has little to do with the rescue efforts.

The direction of the rescue efforts has actually pointed out the direction of the market for the next few years, and ultimately the capital made a choice.

A large amount of capital has abandoned the direction of small-cap stocks and rushed into the blue-chip stocks to gather together.

So, we have seen the familiar scene again, which we call the "two-eight division."

The index began to warm up, with the 20% of the weighted stocks rising, but 80% of the small and medium-sized science and innovation stocks are still lying on the ground motionless.In stark contrast, micro-cap stocks have plummeted by 40% in just six or seven days.

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If the decline of the index is rational, the collapse of these individual stocks is a stampede.

The decline at the beginning of January was aimed at the entire market.

Or to put it more deeply, it was aimed at the products of the snowball effect.

The sudden drop at the end of January was targeted at micro-cap stocks, or to put it more deeply, at the margin trading.

The micro-cap stocks mentioned here are precisely the core of the market's risk, far more destructive than the overall market.

What are micro-cap stocks?

Small and medium-sized companies in the science and innovation board and the main board with a market value of less than 50 billion yuan are collectively referred to as micro-cap stocks.

The trend of micro-cap stocks in recent years has actually been very strong, which can be seen from the Wind Micro-cap Index.

The market has stabilized, and it is believed that the index will soon return to 3,000 points, but the micro-cap stocks have lost 40% in just a few days, and it is a pipe dream to expect a recovery.Having a recovery market of 20%-30% is already quite good.

The reason and logic behind this is actually that capital has abandoned small-cap stocks and chosen the direction of blue chips.

This does not mean that there are no opportunities for small-cap stocks, but the overall structural market is ultimately in the direction of blue chips, and capital has already voted with actual actions.

And the so-called stock market disaster is actually caused by two reasons.

First, the capital's herding.

The so-called capital herding is actually very obvious.

The direction of this round of capital herding is blue chips, the leading index, high dividend stocks, state-owned enterprises, the CSI 300, the SSE 50, the ChiNext 50, etc.

The rest are all abandoned by capital.

Among them, the micro-cap stocks at high positions are a sacrifice, directly creating a super top.

This is somewhat related to the rescue of the market, but it has nothing to do with it.Because the bailout funds are destined to buy high-quality blue-chip stocks, they will not consider these junk stocks, nor will they engage in speculation and profiteering.

When funds choose a direction to gather together, it means the other direction is being drained.

It is very clear that the water of micro-cap stocks is not enough for blue-chip stocks to draw, and they have suffered a significant blood loss in an instant.

This is also what many people have mentioned, forcibly pulling up the stocks with "Zhong" in their names, but the result was a market disaster.

Whether this outcome is predestined or deliberately done is hard to say, but it can only be said that we respect the market's choice to gather together.

Second, the harvest of chips.

The capital market is destined to avoid the harvest of chips, which is an inevitable outcome.

This round of decline is actually a game of capital, and it has been conspired for a long time.

The end of this game is those bloody chips, and this script seems to be very old-fashioned.

Indeed, capital is bloodthirsty, and this time it is playing an open card.In fact, the capital had long intended to start the market around 3100, but there was no space at all, and there were no chips.

So they continued to sell off, first blowing up the snowball, including some private equity, these are all clear cards, the market can see the chips, all in hand.

The margin account is also a bloody chip, but to blow up the margin account, the difficulty is actually very high.

So, in the end, the capital decided to start with the micro-plate stocks, directly blowing up this direction, and the bloody chips all came out.

If you are a clear person, you should know that the capital will not save the market at all, their bottom fishing is based on getting cheap chips, they want to make money by themselves, so they push up the stock price.

That is to say, capital never does charity.

That is to say, the ones who do long and short may be the same group of people, this can only be said here.

They suppress the stock price in order to get the chips, and when they get the chips, they can arbitrarily raise the stock price.

When the chips are in their hands, they will not deliberately do short selling anymore.Capital is the real scoundrel; they act like domestic abusers, beating you first and then wiping the blood from the corner of your mouth.

When you've forgotten this pain, they will make a comeback.

We are accustomed to calling the market's cycle a "cycle."

And the essence of the cycle is the continuous flow of chips and funds, over and over again.

From the hands of retail investors to the hands of the main force, then back to the hands of retail investors, and then back to the main force.

For retail investors, what they earn in the bull market is mostly lost in the bear market.

For the main force, it's just a change in the way of harvesting.

Harvesting incremental funds in the bull market and harvesting existing funds in the bear market.

Nowadays, with many short-selling tools available, it is possible to harvest "leeks" (a slang term for inexperienced investors) during the downtrend.

Here, it is also important to emphasize that capital will always only do things that are beneficial to them.It seems that various snowballing financial crises have a particularly wide impact.

It appears that the liquidation of various private placements also has a significant impact.

It seems that a sharp decline in stock prices will hit the confidence of small investors.

It is said that without confidence, the market is doomed.

But the reality is, without confidence, cheap chips come out, and the market will rise.

As for the confidence of small investors, a single bullish line can restore it, and if one is not enough, then three or five will do.

Nowadays, there are people shouting that the bull market is coming every day, and the new starting point of the bull market has emerged, and people believe it every day.

So there will always be people who are domestic violence victims, which is the nature of human nature, and it cannot be changed unless the true face is recognized, and then they will leave the market.

Written at the end of this round of review, it is also the key point.

In fact, it is no longer helpful to pursue who caused the decline.Even if we know who did it, it's impossible and unrealistic to expect compensation for the small investors. What we can do is to quickly build our own defensive fortress after the storm has passed, which is very important.

Nowadays, there will be a window of opportunity for at least a period of time, allowing everyone to earn some money and recover their losses in peace.

What needs to be considered is what kind of stocks or sectors to buy, to ensure that you can make your own money during this window period.

The past losses are already in the past, and now the key is whether we can seize the opportunity.

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