Recently, I have been contemplating a question regarding the main trend of the market in 2024. This issue has actually troubled me for quite some time.
The main theme of 2023 revolves around technology, such as AI, computing power, and companies like Huawei. The main theme of 2021 and 2022 was new energy. From 2019 to 2020, the main theme was blue-chip stocks, large-cap stocks, and core assets.
In 2024, after just one month, many people say that there is only a main trend of losing money, and the main trend of the market has not been found. Although the main trend of the market has not yet been seen, it is indeed clear what the market needs to do this year.
Looking at this year's market from two directions:
Direction one is recovery and repair. In 2023, a very obvious characteristic was that the effect of recovery was particularly poor.In 2023, a multitude of policies were indeed introduced, but the ultimate level of response was not very satisfactory.
This was the most direct cause of the decline throughout the year of 2023. Policies are ultimately just policies; what is needed are results.
Whether it is from social financing data or looking at the consumer index, there is no satisfactory answer.
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Behind this, there are thousands of listed companies facing a very difficult situation, especially in terms of performance, which will be reflected to a great extent.
In 2024, the goal is to complete the tasks that were not completed in 2023, recovery, and repair.
The recovery is the growth rate of the economy, but this is just a goal.
What needs to be repaired is the confidence of the market, both in terms of consumption and sentiment.
There will definitely be significant policies in a few directions.
One is real estate, an industry more foundational than finance, because the proportion of residents' assets is too high.
The majority of residents' assets, more than 50%, are in real estate. This structure was said to have problems a long time ago, but no one believed it. Now, it is too difficult to adjust the structure.The real estate sector is also heavily involved in debt, so lowering interest rates and stabilizing housing prices to promote transactions is of utmost importance.
All of this definitely requires policy support, but the effectiveness of these policies is not easy to judge at the moment.
The real estate sector is just entering a cold winter, and whether real estate companies can turn their fortunes around depends on the extent of the stimulus.
Another direction is the large consumer sector, which is key to driving the domestic cycle.
The large consumer sector is also a cornerstone of economic development, and it is not only related to people's livelihoods but also to the entire market.
CPI, as the most important consumer data, can directly reflect the situation of the market.
The rise and fall of the consumer sector, or the recovery of the performance of listed companies in the consumer sector, can only be seen as it unfolds.
In terms of policy stimulation for consumption, there are not many options other than issuing consumption vouchers.
The investment opportunities in this direction are actually related to the entire industrial chain of people's livelihood and the economy, which is not so simple, but it must be done.
Behind consumption is a close relationship with loans and employment, and policy support is very important.Direction Two, Confrontation and Survival.
The direction of confrontation and survival is actually very clear.
So-called confrontation is to confront the blockade of Western countries against us.
All industries that are technologically restricted face the issue of confrontation.
Whether it is biopharmaceuticals or high-end chips, these industries that are being strangled and blocked will face confrontation issues.
The Western encirclement and suppression against us is very heavy, making these industries really very difficult.
These industries are now in a very contradictory cycle.
The specific contradiction lies in the development of the industry and the performance of listed companies moving in opposite directions.
On the one hand, there is a lot of financing support from the market, IPO listing, on the other hand, listed companies cannot deliver performance results.
To put it bluntly, the market has given the money, but it cannot give the return.Moreover, the future of the listed companies in these industries is highly uncertain.
This poses a significant challenge for investment.
It is akin to 10 years ago when we all knew that China would have its own smartphones, but no one knew that the survivors would be Xiaomi, Huawei, Oppo, and Vivo.
In the future, it is unknown who will be the domestic giants in these fields, and while the development trend is actually determined, the process of survival of the fittest is extremely difficult for investment in listed companies.
Survival and competition are not on the same frequency; survival itself does not have technical issues, but it also has its own problems.
The overcapacity in the photovoltaic industry is a survival issue.
It no longer has technical blockades, but the internal competition will inevitably bring difficulties in survival, and profits will become increasingly scarce.
The situation in the new energy vehicle industry is similar.
The emergence of survival issues is caused by both internal and external troubles.When certain industries within a country reach a certain stage of development, they begin to experience involutionary competition, where homogenization represents dwindling profits. External threats come in the form of restrictions in overseas markets, such as tariffs and the like.
Many export-oriented enterprises face significant challenges, and the fluctuations in exchange rates can also have an impact. Many of our advantageous industries will also encounter numerous bottlenecks when it comes to going global.
This issue of survival is an issue that must be considered, and it is also a possibility that could lead to policy mainstream guidance. If policies do not actively support these advantageous industries, then there may come a time when there is not a single one capable of standing out.
In summary, this market actually has three main threads.
Thread one, the economic recovery line, includes major consumption and real estate. This thread is the main line, and in fact, it is also the most important line.Perhaps in the capital market, this line will not usher in a major hype, nor will it experience sharp rises and falls, but from a macro perspective, this direction is absolutely the most important direction.
Main line two, the advantage industry line, including photovoltaics, new energy, ultra-high voltage, etc.
The advantage industry line, under the protection of policies this year, may welcome a recovery.
This line is actually very crowded, but it has also fallen for a whole year.
When the word "recovery" begins, the expectations of this line may undergo significant changes.
In fact, their importance is self-evident.
Main line three, the technology line, independent replacement to solve the bottleneck, chips, innovative drugs, including artificial intelligence, etc.
Having our own technology line is very important, and it will definitely be realized.
Our needs exist, and the progress of technology will not stop, even if there is still a gap, it will eventually be made up.
However, although the capital market recognizes logic, it also needs results. Drawing a pie is possible, but without performance support, the valuation will still return.We are looking forward to the emergence of several major technology companies that can truly and effectively pave the way for a technology-driven nation, and even extend to the global stage.
The policy support for this industry is also considerable, and the room for imagination is also significant. However, the key lies in identifying the specific main branches.
By 2024, the worst time point has already passed, but where the true main line is can only be said to be a step-by-step process.
This is because the direction of economic recovery cannot be accurately predicted, and the future of these main lines is still shrouded in a veil of uncertainty.
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