Today, I'd like to share some understanding of short-term technical analysis, as many people have been asking privately about how to grasp the buying points for short-term trading.
Everyone wants to buy at a great price, but a great price is not something that can be sought after; it's something that can be encountered.
That is to say, absolute highs and lows are mostly guessed rather than analyzed through technical analysis.
This point is actually not hard to understand.
The absolute low point must be where no one is interested. The true low point is not the result of a game.
It is rare to see a huge trading volume at the absolute low point because when it reaches the low point, there are not many people selling.
Similarly, the absolute high point is not the result of a game.
The trading volume at the high point itself will be very large because there are many speculative funds.
However, the high point often has no limit, and there is no pressure point. Instead, it is a critical point produced by the confrontation between the following plate and the pressure to sell.
This kind of game, theoretically, cannot be controlled, and there is no skill to speak of.Many people will certainly ask, what clues can be discovered in the battle between bulls and bears hidden in the time-sharing chart?
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What kind of help does it provide for the control of buying and selling points?
1. The trend direction of ultra-short lines is written in the time-sharing.
We can see the trend of a stock from the structure of the K-line.
The trend of long cycles can also be seen from the weekly and monthly lines.
The trend of ultra-short lines may face washing, and many times it is not visible.
But in fact, washing also has key points, which can be seen through the time-sharing chart.
In 15 minutes, 30 minutes, and 60 minutes, the daily line is divided into 4 cycles, 8 cycles, and 16 cycles.
Once there is such a short cycle of K-line, it means that the trend of ultra-short lines can be grasped and judged.
Ultra-short cycle washing is often completed within half a day, and when put into a 15-minute cycle, it is easy to see the intentions of the main force.It is quite easy to grasp the short-term strength and weakness within this cycle, identify the direction of capital, and make short-term judgments.
2. The key points of ultra-short positions are written in the time-sharing.
The key points of ultra-short positions, especially the turning points of trend strength and weakness, are all in the time-sharing.
When you look at the daily line, the key position of strength and weakness is the 5-day moving average, but if the stock price has always been above the 5-day moving average, how should it be grasped?
But if the time span is put into the time-sharing level, the 30-minute MA5, or even the 15-minute MA, is a dividing line of strength and weakness.
If there is a large volume of stagnation in the short cycle, there will be trapped positions at a high position.
Within a time cycle, if the trapped positions increase, and the main force allows this situation to occur, the high point of the short cycle is clear.
Similarly, even the short cycle of the rise will also have the situation of retesting the moving average.
It's just that this moving average is no longer the 5-day line, but the 30-minute, 60-minute MA5, the cycle is shorter.
The support of the moving average in the time-sharing, although its effectiveness is far weaker than the daily level, it is still an important standard for buying and selling points.However, the frequency and fluctuations of short cycles appear to be higher. It takes long-term tracking to discover which short cycle and which moving average the main force is using as a reference for buying and selling.
When your cycle sequence matches the main force's cycle sequence, the key points can naturally be grasped.
Long-term tracked stocks can help you make better trading buy and sell point choices by finding key points.
3. The change in trading volume of ultra-short lines is written in the time-sharing.
The trading volume is actually very magical.
The trading volume of individual stocks in the time-sharing is much more meaningful than the entire index.
Because the trading volume of the index is often the most concentrated in the first 30 minutes, it will be much weaker in the middle, and it will be slightly enlarged at the end.
So, when you look at the time-sharing chart of the index, you will find that the change in trading volume is very regular, and the reference value is greatly reduced.
But individual stocks are different. There is no rule that the transaction amount must be the largest at the beginning of the market. It can happen after 1 hour, 2 hours, or even before the market closes.
So, the reference value of individual stock trading volume is far higher than that of the index.Engaging in ultra-short-term trading requires identifying the timing of significant movements by the main force. Combining volume and stock price is the best way to evaluate this.
If there is a noticeable increase in volume within a 5-minute cycle, it must be taken very seriously.
You can combine the trend with key point breakthroughs and breakdowns to judge the direction of the ultra-short-term market.
Many people say that to do short-term trading, you need to watch the market closely, which essentially means focusing on these three key points within the market: the short-term trend, the contention for key points, and the changes in volume.
Once you understand these three aspects, the accuracy of judging the ultra-short-term trend will be much higher.
As for the question many people ask about how to set the moving average for ultra-short-term trends, I won't elaborate here, because it's very easy. Just remember the key parameters, 34, and you'll be set.
If you don't understand, just open the time-sharing chart and set the MA parameters, and you will discover many subtleties.
Including 55, 89, they are also one of the regulars in ultra-short-term trading.These two parameters, in fact, map more onto the ultra-short-term buying points, but the focus is on the trend of the wave.
Many wonderful things, I think it's more interesting for everyone to explore on their own, which would be much better than others explaining to you and you not understanding it, relying on their own comprehension.
The biggest disadvantage of ultra-short-term trading is actually the T+1 trading system.
This means that the risk of buying on the same day is actually unknown, because it is only possible to sell the next day.
Even if you buy at the end of the day, it may also be due to some fundamental issues that have fermented, leading to a black swan event that weakens the market trend.
This is also a common problem that many frequent ultra-short-term traders encounter.
Even a stock that has a limit-up the next day may open lower, or even directly limit-down.
How to avoid risks in the game of ultra-short-term trading under this trading system?
The answer is actually only one, which is to diversify positions.When the amount of capital is relatively small, it is not recommended to diversify positions because there is no fear of stepping on a "mine" (i.e., making a bad investment). Buying 3 or 5 stocks, even if one is a bad investment, as long as the skills are proficient, the losses can be covered, and the result is still profitable.
However, when the capital is large, it cannot withstand the turmoil, mainly in terms of time. To diversify risks, it is not as simple as just looking at some intraday charts. Synchronized multiple positions can effectively diversify risks and reduce the losses from stepping on a "mine."
Buying 3-4 stocks, even if one is a bad investment, will only reduce the returns, not result in negative returns. In fact, the concentration of speculative capital is not as high as people think, and it is normal for a single brokerage firm to appear on the lists of 2-3 listed companies.
Some small tricks in intraday trading are just to increase the probability of winning, or to increase the precision of buying and selling points. The essence of short-term trading is still the game of chips, and the key to controlling the chips is the trend of the main force.
To put it bluntly, if the main force wants to go east and you want to go west, it is absolutely impossible.What you can do is nothing more than to find the direction of the main force through subtle clues, and get on and off the vehicle a step ahead of others.
The goal of shortening the long cycle to the short cycle is to be faster and heavier, and never to be mythologized.
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