Before the market opens after the New Year, write an article about the future landscape of the A-share market.
It is not just to predict the direction of the future market, but to discuss the possible changes in the future market based on the current macro and micro situation.
Let's start with a few core points.
1. Blue-chip stocks, dividend income, become an important way for retail investors to manage their finances.
Why it is considered financial management is because more and more retail investors will take dividend income seriously.
This may not have been a particularly reliable thing in the past few decades.
But in the future, in the era of sustained low interest rates from banks, retail investors buying high-dividend individual stocks will gradually become popular.
In fact, during the bear market of 2022-2023, the CSI Dividend Index, low-volatility dividends, including high-dividend individual stocks led by bank stocks, have shown very good resilience.
Behind this is actually the influx of funds into the high-dividend track, including the blue-chip direction of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300.
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Dividends of more than 3%, or even more than 5%, will become the market's future darlings, attracting long-term capital to enter the market.Among them, there will be a group of mature investors who consider receiving dividends as an important financial management method for the future.
2. High volatility will be mainly focused on small and medium-sized science and technology innovation companies, with opportunities and risks coexisting.
The market's future volatility will gradually decrease, but small and medium-sized science and technology innovation companies will still experience significant fluctuations.
The Shanghai Composite Index may maintain within a certain range for a period, and funds with lower risk preferences will make a large number of layouts based on valuation.
However, there will still be some funds that want to make a lot of money and will enter the market for speculation, mainly focusing on small and medium-sized science and technology innovation companies.
Companies with a market value of ten billion yuan may become the main battlefield.
Those small market value companies without strong strength may be accelerated to be eliminated.
The market will clearly show a situation where opportunities and risks coexist, with the best in these companies and the worst also in these companies.
Significant fluctuations will become the main theme, and opportunities depend on how to grasp them.
3. The pace of state-owned enterprises going public will accelerate, and market value management and dividend management will not be lacking.There is still a portion of state-owned enterprises (SOEs), especially those at the local level, that have not yet gone public and will accelerate the process of listing in the coming years.
The main source of local finance has traditionally been land finance, but in the future, we will see the securitization of capital, which is essentially equity finance.
Support high-quality listed companies, and then supplement local fiscal revenue through taxation and dividends.
These high-quality SOEs will also be an important capital reservoir in the future, where local equity investments and capital investments will need to be undertaken by these enterprises.
4. Pension funds and social security will accelerate their entry into the market and be tied to large blue-chip stocks, leading to a slow bull market.
The fundamental reason why the Chinese market lacks a slow bull market is the insufficient bundling of interests.
One of the social contradictions that need to be resolved is the issue of the future demographic dividend and the aging population.
Therefore, there will definitely be steps for pension funds and social security funds to enter the market, but it needs to be done step by step.
This part of the funds is destined to be tied to large blue-chip stocks, and the CSI 300, in fact, is tailored for this part of the funds.
When this part of the funds comes in, the slow bull market will come, and if this part of the funds does not enter the market for a long time, then the slow bull market may become an illusion.From the current situation, it seems inevitable that this matter must be carried out, but the speed at which the process will advance remains uncertain.
5. The Beijing Stock Exchange will become a new cradle (financing base) for specialized, innovative, and high-quality enterprises.
I would like to specifically mention the Beijing Stock Exchange, and the reason is quite simple: there must be a bonus. It's not just a round of short-term increases in the second half of 2023, which can't be considered a bonus.
The emergence of an exchange implies that there must be a purpose for it, and when it begins to operate in earnest, the capital bonus will come.
The positioning of the Beijing Stock Exchange is actually slowly changing, which can be seen from its IPO method. If the final details of the Beijing Stock Exchange can be implemented without the need for transfer listing, and specialized, innovative, and high-quality enterprises can go public directly through an IPO, it would undoubtedly be a huge positive.
In essence, enterprises may be able to benefit directly from patents, enter the capital market, and engage in financing.
Once the positioning of the Beijing Stock Exchange changes, the market speculation space will be opened up, and everything becomes possible.
6. ETFs will be issued on a large scale, with not only retail investors but also a large number of institutional investors participating.The investment direction of the market has quietly shifted from the original stock investment to ETFs.
Publicly offered funds are actually a transitional investment method, and in mature markets, index ETF investment is the main focus.
Actively managed funds cannot outperform passively managed indices, which is the norm.
The enthusiasm of retail investors for ETFs will greatly increase because they cannot understand stock selection.
Not only that, but a large number of institutional investors will also use ETFs for investment because it is more convenient and efficient, and there are fewer pitfalls.
As a result, the market will cooperate with the issuance of a large number of corresponding ETFs to expand the market size and attract more funds.
7. The weighty listed companies of the A50 will become the cornerstone of the market, and the emerging companies of the ChiNext 100 will become the future of the market.
The market always has a cornerstone and always needs a future. Different parts bear different responsibilities.
The launch of the A50 integrates the Shanghai and Shenzhen 50, selects from the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, and includes the core targets of the ChiNext 50 and the Science and Technology Innovation Board 50.
This index, like the S&P 500 in the United States, has become the cornerstone of the market.High growth is destined not to belong to the A50; the task of growth will still be borne by the ChiNext 100.
The companies that can achieve significant growth in the future are also the pillars of future technology, all within the direction of the ChiNext 100.
The ChiNext 100 is a general concept, not just the Science and Technology Innovation 100, but also the Technology 100, encompassing chips, innovative drugs, new energy, AI, and a series of other areas that represent the future direction.
This is similar to the S&P and NASDAQ in the United States, each with its own importance and mission.
Many people may ask, what is the basis of your judgment.
In fact, many things do not require an accurate basis; it is based on the current macro fundamentals, the main economic contradictions, the direction of capital in the money market, and the current market's weather vane to make a comprehensive judgment.
Core: The future needs a new reservoir.
The water stored in this reservoir is not the investment of ordinary retail investors, nor the investable assets of residents, but pensions and social security funds.
The first time I heard about a financial powerhouse, I didn't react.After careful contemplation for a long time, it was discovered that everything is slowly becoming clear.
Walking on two legs is absolutely necessary. The securities market that solely relies on IPO financing will eventually reach its limit, and the other leg must catch up.
Using cornerstone funds to bind cornerstone listed companies is an inevitable path for any financial market to grow and become strong.
As for the de-individualization of investors, it is also inevitable.
Because only when the market has no more "leeks" to cut, will the funds switch from a short-term arbitrage model to a long-term value model.
In fact, the market has already taken this step quite quickly, after all, the A-share market has only been around for just over 30 years, and the number of individual investors is so large.
In the next few years, there may be rapid changes and trials and errors in the system itself to accelerate the development process of the market.
During this stage, the market will still have a lot of growing pains and will not be as smooth as imagined.
The market that fluctuates below 3000 points will still have a long period, and one should be mentally prepared.
How many individual investors can wait for the next bull market is still unknown, but the A-share market will eventually usher in a true bull market that does not look back in the distant future.
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