Why has the 3,000 point mark always been so important.

Why has the 3,000 point mark always been so important.

Translate the following article into English: The article may be a bit long,but it strives to tell the story about the 3000 point mark thoroughly in one go.

Many people have long said that the A-share market has been lingering around the 3000 point mark for a long time,and this 3000 point mark is made of paper,worthless.

Others say that after so many years of economic development,it is still around the 3000 point mark,and this 3000 point mark is an insurmountable barrier.

Since the 3000 point mark has always been up and down,the market will naturally come to a conclusion.

That is,above 3000 points,it is a trap for bulls,and below 3000 points,it is a trap for bears,which has become the main melody of this market.

Since the first time the market reached 3000 points in 2007,there have been more than ten times when the market has been up and down around the 3000 point mark.

Each time the market is around the 3000 point mark,it is actually very valuable,and behind it is also a game of confidence for the entire market.

Even if the 3000 point mark is broken every time,the above 3000 points is confidence,and below 3000 points is gold,this statement is also correct.

Have you ever thought about why the market pays so much attention to the 3000 point mark,and regards this point as the dividing line between bulls and bears?Why not 2000 points,not 4000 points,or 2500,3500,and such levels?

For more than a decade,it has been hovering around 3000 points.

Every time it falls below 3000 points,all means are exhausted to rescue the market,and once it rises above 3000 points,the market is left to drift with the tide.

Consider what the foundation of the market is,what the upper layer of the market is,and what kind of capital enters below 3000 and exits above 3000.

Who has taken away the bottom of all bear markets?

The recognized bottoms are 1664,1849,2440.

There are also many phased bottoms,such as 2319 in 2010,1949 in 2012,2850 in 2015,2638 in 2016,2646 in 2020,2863 in 2022,and so on.

The shadow of mysterious capital has appeared in these bottoms.

The opportunities below 3000 points have not ultimately fallen into the pockets of retail investors.

That is to say,the market needs to return below 3000 points to allow the mysterious capital to bottom-fish.Policies are merely supplementary to capital in rescuing the market,providing cheap chips to capital,and then assisting capital to rise and make profits.

Who escapes the top of all bull markets?

The top of a bull market actually exists with bearish factors.

However,these bearish factors are very concealed because no one will take the initiative to say that they have released bearish news.

At 6124,content to prevent a financial crisis emerged,stating that there were signs of overvaluation in large finance and blue-chip stocks.

At 5178,the market also issued words to prevent a financial crisis,demanding deleveraging and cleaning up financing.

Such blatant bearish news actually means that the index will fall,but the decline may far exceed the policy expectations at the time.

It was just intended to regulate the market,but it led to a capital stampede,and the market was extremely fragile.

But before releasing the bearish news,did the mysterious capital get the news in advance and withdraw in advance?

Who are the people who escaped the top?This question is also very worth thinking about carefully,after all,they can see the opportunity first.In recent years,market fluctuations have begun to narrow,aimed at the overall stability of the market.

The lowest point is 2440,and the highest point is 3731,which are very good regulatory measures.

From 2440 to 3000 points,it is exactly 23%,and from 3731 to 3000 points,it is exactly 24%.

This fluctuation range can be called perfect.

It can be said that there is a big hand,invisibly making 3000 points the central axis of the market.

Including the last bull market,it rose from 1849 to 5178 all the way.

From 1849 to 3000 points,it is exactly 62%,and from 5178 to 3000,it is exactly 72%,which is also very well regulated.

The more the market deviates from the 3000 points,the greater the pulling force of the market,which can pull the market back like this.

If it falls too much,it will naturally rise,and if it rises too much,it will naturally fall.

Above 3000 points,we can discuss the bull market,and below 3000 points,it is a solid bear market.This dividing line is how it came to be.

So,here comes the question again.

Below 3000 points,since it is a bear market,how can one seize the opportunity to bottom-fish in a bear market?Above 3000 points,since it is a bull market,how can one seize the opportunity to sell at the top in a bull market?

Below 3000 points,theoretically,the more it falls,the more one buys,the more money one makes.

But in actual situations,below 3000 points,there are very few people who make money,and many suffer huge losses.

For example,recently,someone said they bottom-fished at 2900 points,the index fell to 2700,and then returned to 2900,only to find that they not only haven't broken even,but have actually lost a lot of money.

Don't look at the fall from 3000 points to 2700,just this 10%.

The money most people lose is far more than 10%,with 20-30% being very common.

In 2018,the index fell from 3314 to 2493,a drop of 25%,but most stocks were cut by more than half.

Because,below 3000 points,the index falls less,but the individual stock falls a lot.The index falls more slowly the lower it goes,so when there is a significant drop,individual stocks are in a state of widespread distress,which is where the greatest risk lies.

The effect of losing money cannot be simply calculated by the decline of the index.

Therefore,this leads to a situation.

We clearly know that below 3000 points is a good opportunity to make money,but there are not many people who dare to bottom-fish,and there are quite a few people who die on the way to bottom-fishing.

The opposite situation is the same.

When the index rises above 3000 points,it is obviously that the risk is increasing,and it is very likely that the stock price will collapse.

But most investors are more willing to invest when the stock price rises,because the effect of making money will be better.

The index may only rise from 3000 points to 3500 points,but there are many stocks that have doubled,and there are more opportunities to make money.

This will form a kind of abnormal investment behavior in the market.

Including public funds,the amount of fundraising above 3000 points is several times the amount of fundraising below 3000 points.This fully illustrates that the market has a high level of popularity above 3000 points,while the popularity is very low below 3000 points.

Rational investors are ultimately a minority,and those who dare to bottom-fish and top-escape are even fewer among the few.

This leads to the importance of the 3000 point mark,even if understood by retail investors,it can still be mishandled.

Trading is always following one's own heart,rather than a real trading system and strategy.

 

When it was at 3700,the price-to-earnings ratio of the Growth Enterprise Market was as high as 60 times,and everyone was still buying,buying,buying.When it fell to 2700,the price-to-earnings ratio of the Growth Enterprise Market was only 25 times,and everyone was still selling,selling,selling.

The level of risk is actually quite obvious,but the market is in such a situation,what should investors do in the end.

Facing the 3000 point mark,what actions should investors take to be correct?

Here are a few very important mantras for everyone.

1.Below 3000 points,a sharp drop is an opportunity to buy.Below 3000 points,the market is full of gold opportunities.

However,many people who bought below 3000 points did not make much money; instead,they ended up catching a lot of falling knives.

The reason for this is that they did not understand when to buy below 3000 points.

Most people look at the bottom-fishing from a valuation perspective,considering whether it is worth buying stocks at the moment.

But in reality,the market's bottoming out has nothing to do with valuations; it depends on whether there are cut-loss chips at the bottom and whether there is panic selling.

So,in terms of actual market trends,a sharp decline is the opportunity to buy.

Or after a sharp decline,when the index stabilizes,it is the opportunity to buy.

The slow and steady decline,where the chips cannot come out,will never see the bottom and has nothing to do with the word "bottom."

2.Above 3000 points,stagnation is an opportunity to sell.

Above 3000 points,the risk of stocks will gradually accumulate.

(Note: The translation is provided in a way that maintains the original meaning and context of the Chinese text,while ensuring it is understandable in English.)But above 3000 points,it is also a good time to make money.

How to measure whether to sell stocks above 3000 points,whether to take profits and be safe.

From the perspective of the index,above 3000 points,if there is a stagnation in the index,it is a good opportunity to sell.

The so-called stagnation refers to the fact that the trading volume is still good,but the rise of the index has obviously slowed down.

At that time,due to the pressure of the index,it is getting heavier and heavier,and the market's differences are increasing.

Above 3000 points,3100,3200,3300,3400,the higher the position,the less willing the funds are to enter.

That is,the incremental funds start to decrease above 3000,and only retail investors and public funds purchased by retail investors are continuously increasing their positions above 3000.

When their positions can no longer be increased,the market starts to stagnate,which actually means that a large amount of existing funds have already been escaping wantonly.

Understanding this point clearly,it is easy to capture the relative high position of the index and then reduce positions.

3.Around 3000 points,the number of repeated shocks is very few,understanding the trend is very important.The situation of repeatedly fluctuating around the 3000 point mark is actually quite rare.

This is because at this level,there is neither a significant opportunity nor a significant risk.

In such a situation,either it fluctuates and then falls,opening up space for the market trend.

Or it fluctuates and continues to rise,washing the plate at the round number of 3000 points.

So how to determine whether it will rise or fall?

Here,one must observe the trend,which becomes the key.

Most of the time,the index has rushed from the 2000s to 3000,and stops here to change hands,and then continues to rise.

The reason is that the trend is upward,and the selling pressure at 3000 points is also large.Without crossing 3000,it is impossible to truly sell out.

Therefore,many times when the index hits near 3200,or 3400,it starts to fall.

There have been previous instances such as 3186,3288,3414,3418,3478,and so on.The situation of the decline is also similar,the recent 2885,2863,in fact,they are all about the same.

The trend is downward,it will definitely break through 2900,at least to create some panic,in order to see the bottom of the stage.

4,3000 points is the anchor of the Shanghai Composite Index,but to make money,you can look for opportunities in small and medium-sized science and innovation.

No one stipulates that you must follow the Shanghai Composite Index for speculation,and no one stipulates that you must refer to the rise and fall of the Shanghai Composite Index.

The fluctuation of the Shanghai Composite Index is relatively small compared to other indexes.

That is to say,the Shanghai Composite Index falls 10% below 3000 points,and may return to 3000,only making a profit of 10%.

But if you go to small and medium-sized science and innovation to find opportunities,10% below 3000 points,back to 3000 points,may make a profit of 30%,50%.

Individual stocks will be more when falling,but when rising,the opportunity will be better.

Similarly,above 3000 points,it may only be fried to 3600,an increase of 20%.

But for individual stocks,some have already risen by 50%,or even 100%,and the opportunity will also be better.The 3000-point mark,being a watershed,can play a crucial role in controlling your positions.

However,in terms of stock selection,do not focus on the 3000-point mark at all,but concentrate more on selecting opportunities with growth potential.

The 3000-point mark is actually very important,but many retail investors merely consider it as a round number threshold.

Below the 3000-point mark,one should know how to seize opportunities.

Above the 3000-point mark,one should know how to control risks.

Investing is about buying low and selling high,which is never wrong,so never make the opposite trading decision due to market sentiment.

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